Bank Pekao: Improvement in Polish industry dependent on euro area monetary policy

The persistent weakness of the economic situation in the eurozone is halting the rebound of domestic industry, and "the road to accelerating in the Polish industry leads by cutting rates in the eurozone, assess the economists of Bank Pekao.

The biggest problem of the Polish industry remains the scarcity of foreign demand and as long as the economic situation in the eurozone remains weak, the Polish industry will operate at slow turnover. Although we see the first symptoms of the improvement of the situation beyond our western border (correcture studies, data on transport work in German car transport), but so far they have not translated into an improvement in hard data from European industry. February may be such a month. However, we know what the final solution is here: the way to accelerating in the Polish industry is due to the cuts in the eurozone and the release of the savings accumulated by local consumers for consumption, according to the bank's commentary on the data of the Central Statistical Office on industrial production in February.

According to economists, industrial production in February this year surprised it upwards, but mainly due to price revisions in previous months.

In practice, production has not changed in two years. The economic situation in Europe remains the key to accelerating, it was reported.

According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), sold production of industrial enterprises increased by 3.3% y/y in February 2024. On a monthly basis, there was an increase of 0.7%.

The market consensus predicted an increase in industrial production in February on an annual basis by 2.6%.

According to the Central Statistical Office, after eliminating the impact of seasonal factors, in February this year, sold production of the industry was 1.1% higher than in the same month last year and by 0.1% lower compared to the January this year.

Source: Bank Pekao, GUS and ISBnews