Financing for U.S. commercial properties often based on unrealistic income estimates

Commercial mortgages issued in the United States between 2013 and 2019 were often based on unrealistic income expectations, according to a new study by professors of the University of Texas at Austin. The report is cited by the Wall Street Journal, which described how the study looked at $650 billion in commercial mortgages. It found that although the underwriting on such loans should be assume conservative income estimations, this was often not the case. The study warned that the actual income gap in 28 percent of the loans was 5% or greater. The implication is that these assets were underperforming even before the coronavirus pandemic and will therefor be even more likely to fail than expected.